Warm Start To The Week Before Shower Chances Return

Today should be the warmest day of the week before we see shower and storm chances returning later this week. Temperatures will remain above the seasonal average for the next few days with some late week improvement. 

 The upper air flow is changing this week, already from the west to southwest, which will be slightly more active for the central plains, while eventually bringing a few showers or storms into northeastern OK later this week.  You’ll also notice breezy conditions returning across the area for the next few days with south winds at 15 to 25 mph both today and tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens some across Oklahoma.

 There will be a few storms across the state every day this week, but most of these will remain to our west for the short term.  By Thursday into Friday a cold front will enter northern OK before stalling and lifting northward this weekend.  We’ll keep a chance for scattered storms in the forecast Thursday evening into Friday morning, and a lower chance Friday evening late into Saturday morning.  The upper air pattern may become more active for the following week as the main westerlies aloft begin migrating southward. 

 This should be the hottest day of the week with highs moving into the mid-90s along with heat index values around 100.  The thermal structure of the atmosphere will slowly change over the next few days as mid-level heights will lower resulting in daytime highs also slowly dropping a few degrees.  No significant cooling is expected but some relatively cooler air will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning along the northside of the late week cold front.  Showers and storms will become possible along this boundary with the best chance currently residing from late Thursday night into Friday morning through midday.   Highs behind the boundary should top-out in the mid-80s Friday under mostly cloudy conditions.  Unfortunately, it appears midlevel ridding will arrive this weekend with increasing temps back near 90 or even slightly higher into early next week before additional storm chances arrive for the middle of the following week.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone