Warmer Temperatures and Storm Chances Return

We're watching a few items of interest for the next few days, including additional thunderstorm chances arriving across northeastern OK.  Warmer and humid weather will return today with afternoon highs nearing 90 for the metro and heat index values near 97.  Upper 80s will suffice across most of eastern OK with heat index values also in the lower to mid-90s.

 Low and mid-level moisture has been on the increase overnight and a few showers and storms are located to our west this morning but will weaken as they move eastward near our area. Late the afternoon, a few isolated showers or storms may develop around the I-35 corridor and across extreme southeastern OK.  The odds for storm activity today near the metro remains near or less than 20%. 

WARN Radar

A shortwave trough currently located across the northern Rockies will slip southeastward along the northwest flow and enter the central plains by afternoon.  A surface cold front currently positioned across part of Nebraska will surge southward into northern Kansas this evening with storms developing along these features.  These storms will develop into a complex and should move southward with time, into far southern Kansas and part of northern OK early Friday morning.  The severe threats will remain higher to our north, but if storms can develop into a maturing complex, some strong to severe winds may remain possible early tomorrow morning across northern OK.  Most data support storms weakening as they move into our immediate areas Friday.  Another chance for storms will arrive again late Friday night into Saturday morning from the northwest, with a higher coverage near or west of the Tulsa metro early Saturday through midday. What eventually happens during this period depends upon what happens Friday afternoon and evening behind the departing Friday morning activity. A longer lasting Friday system may limit the chances for Saturday morning. There may also be a very slight chance once again Saturday night into Sunday morning based on the pattern yet actual model output suggest very little chance. 

Temperatures through the weekend period will be characterized with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the lower 80s Saturday and the mid-80s Sunday.  Labor Day appears seasonal with sunshine and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and a minor heat index value. 

Dorian continues to gain intensity as it moves in a favorable position across the very warm oceanic waters southeast of the Bahamas.  The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings the system to a major hurricane category while making landfall across Florida Sunday evening or early Monday morning.  I’ll post additional information regarding Dorian later this morning on my Facebook page.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone