Back to school and work today with another heat warning and heat advisory for Northeastern and southeastern OK. But a strong cold front arrives tonight with storm chances, followed by a few days of lower humidity and temperature. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid-90s, but the heat index will climb to near 110 or higher across NE OK. The front arrives later this afternoon and tonight, bringing the threat of strong and severe thunderstorms across part of the area.
A strong disturbance in the northern stream will advance across the northern high plains this afternoon while helping to advance a surface cold front rapidly southward through the day. The upper level feature will eventually become a close-type low across the upper Midwest into southern Canada Tuesday before moving northeast across the Hudson Bay region Wednesday. The surface cold front will encounter a very rich moisture field across southeastern Kansas and northern OK this evening with dew points projected to be in the upper 70s. Surface instabilities will be high as storms will first develop along the advancing boundary across either southwestern Missouri or southeastern Kansas by 5pm to 7pm. As the front moves southward, storms should either develop along the boundary, or back-build from southwestern Missouri into northern OK. The initial early development period between 5pm and 8pm may support super cellular formation capable of all modes of severe weather. But as time progresses this evening, storms should become more linear supporting damaging winds and large hail threats. Additionally, very heavy rainfall will be likely for those that receive thunderstorms, but the progresses nature of the system should keep the flash flood threats low.
By 9pm to midnight, the bulk of the storms will be developing or moving into the I-40 corridor southward to the Red River. As the main upper level trough begins to lift northeast, the forcing for this front will wane and storms should also decrease intensity around midnight as they encounter far southeastern OK.
The boundary will be positioned across the Red River tomorrow with drier air filtering down the Missouri Valley into northeastern OK by midday to afternoon. Depending upon cloud cover, our daytime highs may stay in the lower 80s near the metro along with northeast winds near 10 to 15 mph. Slightly higher readings are possible across southeastern OK, but the lower humidity will be noticeable for most locations.
Wednesday morning lows will start in the upper 50s and lower 60s with daytime highs reaching the lower to mid-80s. A few showers will be possible across southeastern OK Wednesday morning, but these should stay south of the metro region.
Thursday into Friday moisture and south winds will return with a few spotty shower chances Thursday and a few showers or storms possible but not likely Friday. This weekend another system will approach along with another cold front bringing a few storms Saturday morning across the northern third of the state. The data, unfortunately, is inconclusive regarding the exact outcome of this weekend’s temperatures into early next week. Data last week suggested a very notable cool-down with highs in the upper 70s. Some data continue supporting this solution, but most of the ensembles are now pointing towards highs in the mid-80s. At this point, I have Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 60s to lower70s and afternoon highs in the lower to mid-80s.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a good day!