We’re on track for another rinse and repeat cycle today as temperatures and heat indices will dominate most of our concerns, yet a few widely spaced, isolated showers and storms will remain possible, including this morning to our northwest and this afternoon to the south. Highs today will reach the mid-90s in the metro with heat index values nearing 105.
We anticipate slightly higher values tomorrow that should trigger heat advisories for a part of NE OK. We may even eventually see a few advisories issued later today if the local dews don’t mix down slightly or if temperatures exceed forecast parameters even by a degree or two.
The pattern will continue to support some late night and early morning storms nearing the area for the 2nd half of the week and this may briefly lower the highs for a few days. The extended data continue also to support another frontal boundary nearing the state early next week.
The main ridge of high pressure continues to be centered well west of the state, but also continues to influence most of Oklahoma with some typical hot and humid weather. Locations along and west of I-35 will again reach near or slightly above 100 today, while the eastern third of the state remains in the mid to lower 90s. Hollis, Ok, in the far southwestern quadrant of the state, has recorded 14 days this year of 100 or higher. Buffalo, in the far northwestern corner has reported 11 days of 100+ this summer.
The Tulsa metro has yet to officially hit 100 but may get close early next week before the next front arrives.
With the ridge positioned to the west, this continues the northwest flow pattern aloft across the central plains into northern OK. Eventually, this flow will become more active with a few storms or small systems able to move into our area. Typically, this occurs during the late night and early morning hours.
This morning I’m tracking a few showers and storms that moved from southwestern Kansas into far northwestern OK and may continue to survive until right after sunrise. Some high-resolution data also support one or two small showers attempting to develop this morning across the OK-Kansas state line, possibly across far northwestern Osage county around sunrise. If so, these would drift southwest and eventually dissipate. Otherwise, any isolated t-showers will be confined to southeastern OK or far northwestern OK later this afternoon due to the daytime heating process combined with abundant low-level moisture.
Later this afternoon, storms are likely to develop across part of Nebraska and the Dakotas and will drop southwest into the upper air flow. This cluster of storms should survive into at least far southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas early tomorrow morning, and possibly brushing part of our area.
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, most data support another small cluster of storms brushing southern Kansas, and we’ll continue to keep probabilities in our forecast for this system. Slightly higher chances will arrive Thursday into Friday morning, and possibly Saturday morning before the ridge expands slightly eastward until early next week, when the next front arrives either Monday or Tuesday.
The strength and position of the mid-level ridge is slightly stronger in some data Sunday into Monday compared to others. The difference may result in a high of 100 in the metro Sunday and Monday or a high in the upper 90s. Either way, it appears some hot and humid weather will remain with heat index values this weekend into Monday from 105 to 110.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great afternoon!