After a mostly hot and humid weekend, some relief is on the way. A pattern change brings an unseasonably strong cold front across northern Oklahoma Sunday evening with a cool-down and less humid weather for most of next week. Highs this afternoon will once again reach the mid to upper 90s with heat index values from 105 to 110.
A heat advisory will remain for most of eastern Oklahoma, with excessive heat warnings remaining for southern Kansas. Additional advisories will be likely this weekend before the front arrives Sunday evening.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s and lower 80s this morning with clear sky and gusty south winds. Another quick warm-up is likely today, with the metro reaching the upper 80s late morning and into the lower to mid-90s through noon. Highs this afternoon in the metro westward should reach levels like yesterday, with east-central Oklahoma topping out in the mid-90s along with south to southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to move westward today along with heights slowly lowering in the atmosphere across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. While the ridge will remain strong both today and tomorrow, the position creates a northwest flow pattern over the central plains by Sunday. A strong upper trough will move across the northern U.S. during this period while driving a cold front southward.
The timing of this boundary may continue to change, but data suggests this front will be entering northeastern Oklahoma sometime late Sunday afternoon or evening, along with scattered showers and storms near and behind the boundary. A few of the storms may be severe due to the anticipated surface instability, yet with a somewhat lacking deep layer shear profile.
We may have a layer of warm-air aloft ahead of the boundary, which may limit initial coverage, but with a few more scattered storms post-frontal Sunday evening. Data has been inconsistent regarding exactly how widespread storms may be, but our forecast will keep a 40% chance for this period.
The good news should begin Monday and continue through most of next week as unseasonably cool and dry air rotates across the upper midwestern U.S. We’ll be on the southern fringe of this airmass, yet we should benefit with lower humidity and temperatures below seasonal averages for several days with morning lows Tuesday through Thursday in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great weekend!