A pleasant morning is underway due to the influence of dry air and light winds. Temperatures will begin into the lower 60s north and upper 60s south before moving back into the upper 80s near 90 for afternoon highs.
The 60-degree dew point temps will keep the heat index very low again today with sunshine and a light northeast wind.
The big question remains the exact track of TS Barry. The current positioning from most of the Global models would keep any real impacts east of the state. Some of the higher resolution models with different convection schemes do have the center of the landing system moving slightly west of the official track from NHC.
If this were to occur, a few bands of showers could impact far eastern or southeastern OK this weekend. There is even a small chance that a few bands could wrap around the system and enter southeastern OK regardless of any change in official forecast track.
Again, we think this probability will remain very low but not impossible. Higher impacts should remain slightly more eastward, into southwestern and central Arkansas. We’ll include a low mention for extreme southeastern and eastern OK this weekend.
Once this tropical system moves more north and east, our next item of interest would be a short wave dropping across the central or northern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday. Both main global models seem to keep most of the impacts to our north and west. If this wave were slightly more southward, a few showers or storms would be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning near or northwest of the metro. This chance also remains quite low.
The rest of the forecast scenarios involve a slowly increasing heat and humidity profile that should trigger additional heat advisories, if not by Tuesday, then Wednesday through the end of next week as midlevel ridging is expected for most of the eastern third of the state. This ridge may also retrograde next weekend creating another northwest flow window for the early part of the week, beginning July 22-23rd.
High temps by Wednesday into late next week may reach the upper 90s with heat indices from 105 to 112. Ouch.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.