Tracking Microburst Potential Across Northeast Oklahoma Today

Another day of heat advisories will be underway with these values reaching from 105 to 112 area wide before a cold front approaches the region with storm chances and slightly lower humidity following for Thursday and Friday.

We continue to watch for a tropical storm developing across the southern U.S. Gulf region, for any potential impacts near our area early next week. At this point, the odds remain low for the metro with higher impacts to the south or east early next week.

Highs this afternoon will reach the mid-90s along with southeast wind shifting to the northeast at 10 to 15 mph and extremely humid weather. A few isolated showers or storms may develop this morning across northeast Oklahoma, but slightly better chances will arrive later as the boundary nears our region. The tropical airmass ahead of the system will support heavy rainfall for those who do receive any activity along with microburst potential.

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Low dew points (drier air) will be slowly filtering into the northeastern Oklahoma region later tonight bringing some minor relief from heat and humidity for the rest of the week as northeast winds should prevail. South winds return this weekend with another gradual uptick of heat and humidity. Overnight and morning lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s near 70 Thursday and Friday with afternoon highs Thursday in the upper 80s near 90 and into the lower 90s Friday.

Northeast winds should prevail during this period with slightly lower afternoon humidity that should be noticeable for most folks. South winds will return this weekend with increasing heat and slowly building humidity. At this point, our weekend forecast remains dry.

The tropical system is developing across the Gulf Region and will impact the coastal region with flooding and heavy rainfall. Southern Louisiana to southeast Texas may be in the region for a landfalling system before the system begins to weaken and loses its tropical storm classification.

What happens Monday, and Tuesday regarding NE Oklahoma will depend upon the strength of mid-level ridging across the plains. A stronger ridge will keep this system away from the state, and this will probably be the case. Most data now support this system turning northward early this weekend with the remnant weakening circulation nearing southern Arkansas or northern Mississippi Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

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This would place eastern Oklahoma on the western of subsidence side of the system with minor impacts regarding any rain chances. If the system is positioned more westward than anticipated, or if the ridge across the plains is weaker, this decaying system may be nearing our area with shower and storm chances Monday evening into Tuesday.

Again, at this point, our extended forecast remains mostly dry with higher impacts south or east Tuesday.

Once this system moves more eastward away from the area, the heat and humidity will continue to climb with additional heat advisories likely for the middle to end of next week. It's worth noting at this point - the possible upper air change later next week that would allow another brief northwest flow to touch northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas which could bring another front or decaying MCS near the area.

Remain aware of both the increasing heat index and the storm chances today.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone