Heat index values will increase over the next 3 days before a cold front Wednesday brings some minor relief for the end of the week. We’ll be close to heat advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday.
A few scattered showers and storms will be possible today with both daytime heating and some upper level forcing nearing the area by midday to afternoon. Any storms that do develop later today would be highly efficient rainfall producers with a tropical like airmass across eastern Oklahoma.
A few mature storms later this afternoon may also produce damaging downburst of wind. Highs this afternoon will be near 90 with heat index values nearing 100. As the scattered storms develop, some pockets of rain-cooled 70s will be possible in a few areas.
The pattern for the next 3 days will support mostly humid and very warm weather across the state, with Tuesday and Wednesday peaking with afternoon highs in the mid-90s Wednesday. The heat index will be near or above 105 Tuesday, and possibly between 105 and 109 Wednesday before a cold front approaches northeastern Oklahoma sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening with a chance for a few showers or storms.
If they do develop, a few strong to near severe storms would be possible, including damaging winds and some hail. The airmass behind the Wednesday front will feature lower dew point temperatures representing slightly drier air that will invade our area Thursday and Friday with lower humidity values for the end of the week.
But by the weekend, south winds will return with increasing humidity into Sunday and early next week. Another wildcard may be a tropical system that could be nearing the general region early next week. If our developing ridge of high pressure remains strong into the weekend, this will more than likely keep the system well to the south. If the ridge is weaker, this could create a favorable window for this tropical system to move up the ArkLaTex and into part of eastern OK early next week. More on this potential later in the week.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!