A few pop-up storms will be possible for the next few days with both daytime heating and a weak upper level system helping with the storm chances.
Later this week, the upper air flow changes again with a northwest flow developing bringing a surface front near northern Oklahoma Saturday evening or Sunday with a few more storms across northern Oklahoma. Temps for the upcoming week should remain near normal with heat index values in the mid-90s. One or two of the mature storms during the afternoon may produce damaging downburst winds as the cells begin to collapse, yet the odds for storm activity will remain low.
The forecast for Thursday, the 4th will also include a slight chance for a storm along with highs in the lower 90s. If you’re making plans for the evening hours, temps will be in the lower 80s by 9 p.m. with heat indices near 90 with a slight chance of a storm dissipating around sunset.
While most of the activity in this pattern is diurnally driven, the presence of a weak wave across Texas will be close enough to aide in thunderstorm development, especially Tuesday. This could also mean a few showers or storms near or south of the area Tuesday morning before a few additional storms could develop with daytime heating.
The pattern this weekend into early next week will support additional storm chances along with temperatures remaining near or even below the seasonal averages. Friday into Saturday an upper level trough near the Rockies will be ejecting into the northern plains with a surface front moving southward into at least southern Kansas and possibly northern OK. This boundary may near or even cross part of northern OK Saturday evening into Sunday bringing a chance for some organized storms back to the northern third of the state. The extended model data also support another wave nearing the state Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with a few additional storms nearby. The typical summerlike pattern keeping the main upper level ridge directly over the state has yet to appear with any lasting power at this point.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!