We're trying to move into a more summer-like pattern, but the upper air flow will keep us in the running for a few more storms through the next several days, including the potential for a pop-up storm or two today and a storm complex to brush the area later tonight into early Wednesday morning across northeastern OK. Highs today will top out in the upper 80s with heat index values in the lower 90s. A few clouds will be nearing this morning through midday as low-level moisture attempts to move northward. As this process occurs, we can’t rule out a few storms at midday to early afternoon, but the chances will remain low for most locations.
Later tonight storms are likely to develop across far northeastern Kansas into southern Nebraska. As these storms become mature, a complex of thunderstorms will attempt to develop and move south to southeast later tonight into pre-dawn Wednesday. The trajectory of the upper air flow would bring this system across northeastern OK and possibly the metro region. But model guidance is varied on the exact location and even has some differences with timing. Unfortunately, the confidence for this part of the forecast remains low. Therefore, our probability for precip will also remain mostly low with higher chances along the state line.
Wednesday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast period a mid- level ridge of high pressure will attempt to expand across part of the state. This will not be an extremely strong, typical summer ridge, but may be strong enough to keep most of the storms positioned across far eastern OK and western Arkansas for the remainder of the extended forecast. This is a typical late June pattern for eastern OK.
Temps are expected to level-off with morning lows in the 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values will reach at least the upper 90s to 102 Thursday through Saturday but may be even higher due to local moisture and evaporation effects. Actual output with the expected dew points and temps keep these values below heat advisory criteria but we may be above some of the advertised numbers by the end of the week. Regardless, you'll need to keep hydrated and prepare for the increasing humidity values.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!