After active weather yesterday, we’ll get a nice break Monday once some morning fog and low clouds exit with sunshine and highs in the mid-80s arriving through the afternoon. A few storms may still be possible for some locations Tuesday and Wednesday before the heat and humidity slowly increase through the remainder of the week with heat indices climbing near 100 or even higher. Rising heights and warmer air aloft should bring the rain and storm chances down through the end of the week, outside of a daytime heating, pop-up storm. But during the next 36 to 48 hours we’ll be tracking another small disturbance that may trigger additional storms for some locations, including the potential for a few small storm complexes.
The morning clouds and fog located near a slow-moving boundary should thin-out with sunshine and light west to northwest winds developing behind the front clearing the area this morning. Its not impossible for a few showers near or northeast of the region for an hour or two but the odds will remain low enough that 98% of us will miss out. A few locations across southeastern Kansas or extreme northeastern OK may track a spotty shower around sunrise. Otherwise, it looks good for most of the day with highs a few degrees below average. Heat index values should be held down to just a degree or two over the afternoon high. This will change later in the week.
The upper air flow will mostly be from the west to northwest over the next few days and will bring at least one, possibly two disturbances across the area. Tuesday morning, we continue to see signals in some (but not all) data for a small complex of storms to develop across southcentral OK and clip southeastern OK during the early morning hours. I’ll keep a light mention for a few storms along both sides of I-40 tomorrow morning with higher chances south.
Tuesday afternoon and evening the northwest flow may sharpen slightly allowing another disturbance to dive southward out of the central plains. Another small complex is possible, but the exact trajectory and location remains elusive in most data. We’ll have our chances around northern OK and southern Kansas during this period including the Tulsa metro, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds the main threat.
Later in the week, gradually increasing mid-level heights (ridging) across eastern OK) will limit the storm chances to mostly late afternoon pop-up storm varieties with highs in the lower 90s and increasing heat index values. Local evapotranspiration combined with dew points in the lower 70s may yield indices between 100 and 107 by the end of the week.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!