After a cool and calm morning, storm chances returned with additional severe weather threats in parts of northeastern OK.
A few decaying storms may persist early tomorrow morning, but mostly across southern Kansas. The remainder of the extended forecast should keep morning lows in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s with a slight chance for a few storms daily near Tulsa with higher chances to our north and northwest.
The typical, late May southwest flow aloft will be positioned across the state this afternoon and tonight with a gusty southeast wind at the surface. A strong upper-level trough located across the central plains will eject northeast today with strong west to southwest winds aloft rounding the base of the trough later this afternoon and evening helping to fire up severe storms across part of Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and southwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening.
A new western U.S. shortwave will develop across the southwestern U.S. later tonight into Thursday bringing additional severe weather threats to central Kansas, northwestern OK and the high plains of Texas Thursday.
A boundary representing deeper low-level moisture is located across the Red River this morning and should spread northwest by afternoon bringing this pool of moisture across central and northeastern OK. A favorable wind profile will create deep layer shear needed for rotating thunderstorms by this afternoon and evening as moisture and instability increase into the evening.
Supercells with large hail and tornadoes would be possible later this afternoon and evening if storms do develop. Most model data do support thunderstorms developing across central to northeastern OK later this afternoon and evening, but the overall coverage is still in question. Regardless, due to the potential instability and wind profile, we have increased our probabilities for this period from 3 pm to midnight.
A short-term flash flood watch will also be posted for northeastern OK and southern Kansas this evening through Thursday morning. Remain aware of your weather surroundings later this afternoon and evening.