A strong storm system will move closer to the state today with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, including severe weather threats. While the main window for severe weather will remain this afternoon and early evening, a small window for a few strong to severe storms may develop this morning across part of far northern OK and southern Kansas.
A stationary boundary is located across far northwestern sections, from Foraker to Pawnee to Guthrie and extends into southwestern OK. Heavy to strong thunderstorm activity remains elevated in nature along the cool side of this front and will continue moving northeast early this morning from north-central OK into southcentral or southeastern Kansas. If these storms manage to cross over the boundary, a few could become severe, even this morning, yet this chance remains low. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms will continue developing across the region through the morning to midday hours with gusty south winds and temps climbing from the upper 60s into the lower 70s. Daytime highs will be reached in the lower to mid-70s north near the 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. hours.
By early afternoon, greater forcing associated with our main upper level system will approach the state with increasing thunderstorm development. Any storms that remain discrete could become supercells producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes across southcentral into northeastern or east central OK. As the afternoon progresses, most data support a linear complex with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. Additionally, heavy rainfall is likely with stronger cells today and may produce pockets of flash flooding for some locations. The National Weather Service has already extended the current flash flood watch southward to include most locations across eastern OK through at least early Wednesday morning.
The set-up for Wednesday depends upon what happens later today regarding the exact location of the above-mentioned boundary. The front will more than likely be positioned south of the metro Wednesday morning, near or along the I-40 corridor for the morning hours. Most data support this boundary lifting northward by the afternoon, possibly along the OK-KS state line region. This would bring warm and unstable air back across the eastern third of the state with additional storm chances possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Two distinct areas of storms may develop, including southcentral to southeastern OK by afternoon and early evening, and across extreme northern OK by late Wednesday night into pre-dawn Thursday. Some of these storms could also become severe before the front finally moves rapidly southeast by Thursday morning taking showers and storms out of the area. Confidence and predictability will remain low at this point for Wednesday and Thursday until we see exactly what happens later today and tonight.
Another disturbance will be near the region Friday with a few showers or storms, but the pattern would not support severe weather.
Most of the weekend currently appears fine with lows in the lower 60s and highs in the upper 70s Saturday and the lower 80s Sunday. Sunday into Monday may bring another system with a few showers or storms.
We’ll encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings today.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.