Unsettled weather will remain for the next few days across the state, including the potential for periods of severe storms and some heavy rainfall.
A boundary will approach the Tulsa metro this afternoon before stalling along the I-44 corridor bringing cooler weather and north winds to far northeastern sections of the state while southeastern OK remain in the 70s with south winds.
The Tulsa metro may experience highs in the mid to upper 70s by early afternoon before dropping into the 60s later this afternoon into the evening. Locations from Osage, Pawnee to Washington county eastward may see the highs of the day at midday with afternoon readings in the lower 60s and with north winds.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible later today and evening along and northwest of the boundary.
A layer of warm air aloft should suppress surface-based thunderstorms more southward across southeastern or east central OK. By the early evening and into pre-dawn Tuesday, a few clusters of thunderstorms will attempt to develop and move along the cool side of the boundary, across central to northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. A few of these storms may produce some severe hail and gusty winds triggering severe thunderstorm warnings.
The presence of the retreating warm front could allow a few storms to root along the boundary and spin, but the odds for this will remain low.
The boundary is expected to lift northward rapidly Tuesday morning bringing south winds and warm weather back through the area by midday into Tuesday afternoon. This will occur as the main upper level storm system to our west continues to draw closer to the area.
The chance for additional showers and storms will continue Tuesday morning to midday but higher likelihoods will arrive Tuesday afternoon into the evening as forcing begins to overrun the state with scattered thunderstorms becoming more likely. The potential for severe storms should be increasing during this period, including the potential for supercell thunderstorms that may produce large hail and damaging winds.
The tornado threat will be present based on today's data.
The forcing for storms Tuesday afternoon and evening will exit the area by late Tuesday into predawn Wednesday but the main upper level system is expected to remain west. This means the surface front will more than likely retreat northward again and would place eastern OK in another position for additional strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening before the main system finally exits the central plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
In addition to the severe weather potential, periods of heavy rainfall may also become more likely along and northwest of the boundary. A flash flood watch is posted for extreme northern OK and southern Kansas beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday morning.
Tulsa County is currently not included in this flash flood watch. Additional counties may be added in subsequent forecast updates.