On Tuesday, a surface ridge of high pressure builds across the Missouri Valley bringing light northeast winds and pleasant weather across northeastern OK with sunshine and highs in the mid-60s.
Our next storm system begins influencing the area soon with increasing south winds and increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the second half of the week.
This weekend appears relatively chilly with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s along with morning lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s possible that part of northern OK will be near freezing for a few hours early Sunday morning.
After today’s pleasant, five-star weather, the next upper level system will gradually approach the west coast with falling pressures across the Lee of the Rockies Wednesday through Friday. Gusty south winds will return Wednesday and Thursday with wind speeds from 20 to 35 mph possible by Thursday.
The first attempt at moisture return appears to take a western route Wednesday. This means our humidity values will continue to be somewhat low for the afternoon allowing another increasing fire spread day across the region. Wednesday night into Thursday morning a few spotty showers or storms will become possible across the northern OK and southern Kansas vicinity as the first of several small waves round the base of the main western trough and eject across the plains.
This first chance for a few storms will remain around 20 to 30 percent and mainly for Thursday morning to midday across the northern third of the state.
Friday the main system will draw closer to the region along with the expectation of surface low development across the plains. Warm air aloft may spread a CAP across the plains Friday in advance of the main system for the first part of the day. While this may limit any surface-based storms for the early afternoon, a few showers or elevated storms may still be possible during the day.
By Friday evening the main surface front will approach the area with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. Some data continue to keep the CAP in place during this time which would limit the higher chances for rain post frontal late Friday night into early Saturday morning while other data suggest some storms could develop in the warm sector by early Friday evening.
We’ll continue to keep a slight mention for a few strong to severe storms at this point for Friday evening. Regardless, the front should quickly move across far eastern OK Saturday morning taking the precip out of the region quickly as the cooler weather spreads across the state.