Once again, the plume of moisture located across eastern Oklahoma will result in efficient rainfall makers this morning for those locations that do receive precip. The most favorable spot will remain along or northwest of the I-44 region, like yesterday morning. Instability is low yet some lightning will be possible along with pockets of tropical downpours. Temps will remain in the lower to mid-70s with morning with highs back into the mid-80s today along with a few additional scattered storms by the afternoon as a weak boundary approaches from the north before stalling across part of the area. The metro will have a slight chance this morning with increasing odds around midday to afternoon.
The remainder of the forecast deals with the remnant of Gordon and the possibility of a plume of moisture residing across southeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas Friday and Saturday.
Gordon made landfall as a tropical storm slightly west of the Alabama and southern Mississippi border late last evening. The system will continue to move northwest into northern Mississippi later today and into western Arkansas late Thursday evening into Friday morning. The latest track from NHC takes the remnant low to southern Arkansas Thursday evening and into far northwestern Arkansas Friday evening before ejecting into southern Missouri Saturday morning. We should be on the subsidence side of the system Thursday with a very limited coverage of showers or storms across eastern Oklahoma, but a low chance will remain in our forecast. As the data stands now, chances for significant rainfall in the metro from Gordon will remain low. Yet we’ll keep some pops for the metro Friday into Saturday with the system nearby.
Friday rain chances will increase to a likely category for the extreme eastern sections of Oklahoma along the Arkansas state line into northwestern Arkansas with flooding rainfall possible across these areas of northwestern or central Arkansas. Warm core tropical systems typically flare-up during the overnight hours directly under the circulation with heavy rainfall near and east of the core Thursday evening into Friday morning. There will be some shear to the northeast quadrant but at this time, I don’t think a severe weather threat will materialize this far north.
The trend in the data continues to drift eastward with each run. But the favorable Euro plots also keep a plume of significant moisture in place from southeastern Oklahoma into west Arkansas Friday evening into Saturday morning even as the old circulation moves northeast away from the state. This means the chances for some Saturday precip will remain across southeastern and far eastern Oklahoma even after the low is absorbed into the faster flow to our northeast. We anticipate drying conditions Sunday into Monday with warmer weather following for most of next week. Highs will reach back into the upper 80s near 90 before another front arrives later next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.