The mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain across the Mid Atlantic U.S with most of the stronger westerlies located well north of the region across the northern U.S into southern Canada during the next few days. Several weak disturbances will continue to rotate around the western periphery of the ridge across Oklahoma today through Wednesday before the possible influence from Gordon may near the southern plains. The first glance of the pattern would support this tropical system remaining slightly east of the metro by Thursday into the weekend. But we'll not know for sure for another few days. Regardless, at this point, we’ll need to keep the precip chances in in the 40% to 50% range both Friday and Saturday. As things appear now, the threat for severe weather today and tomorrow will continue to remain very extremely low. The wild card will continues to be Gordon.
The atmospheric moisture remains rather high across eastern Oklahoma this morning and should remain so for the next few days. This means that any showers or storms would be efficient rain producers with the possibility of brief yet heavy tropical-like downpours. One disturbance is lifting northward this morning across central Oklahoma with scattered showers and one or two rumbles of thunder across the I-35 corridor region extending into the far western regions of our areas of concern. This activity should continue moving northward this morning with additional storm chances possible later this afternoon and evening almost in the same genera areas. The metro along with eastern Oklahoma will be on the fringe of this mid-level low. We’ll have a few transitory showers for the next few hours, but the greater coverage will remain west. Wednesday the coverage may be smaller for our area, but we'll need to keep the chance in the forecast.
Thursday into Saturday seems to be the main period that Gordon could influence our weather with some activity. Yet the pattern would support the eastern side of the tropical system to remain east of our main areas. This would support the best rainfall potential also to our east. Once we get a good handle on the actual trajectory of Gordon, we’ll be able to access the severe weather threats due to the potential for increasing shear on the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. Again, as the pattern supports now, this will remain slightly to our east. As stated above, the actual outcome will not be known with any confidence for another day or two and the forecast parameters associated with Gordon could change.
Temps today will remain well below the seasonal average with most locations topping out in the lower to mid-80s with cloudy and humid conditions. Lows will be in the lower 70s with highs tomorrow in the lower 80s to mid-80s. We’ll scatter shoot some temps for the weekend until the outcome of Gordon becomes more secure. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Highs will be in the mid-80s. It appears that temps will climb above average next week.
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