Storm Chances Again Thursday For Some In Northeast Oklahoma


Thursday, August 30th 2018, 4:55 am
By: Alan Crone


The big question this morning is the potential for storms to move from southeastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and the possibility of severe weather.  Some of the models offer the potential while other data, including most observational data support this chance will remain across far northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.  Regardless, the potential will remain for a few more scattered storms this morning along the stalling front before it lifts northward as a warm front later this morning.  This will bring the heat and humidity back into most of the state with highs in the mid-90s near Tulsa with heat index values around 100 to 103 today.  It appears the heat and humidity will remain for the extended Labor Day weekend holiday.  

Interactive Radar

Temperature this morning will be in the lower 70's with a chance for a few showers or storms across far northeast Oklahoma and southern Kansas.  If these storms do form, the potential for severe weather will exist.  And with the retreating warm front slowly lifting northward, it’s possible that all modes of severe weather would be possible, even though the actual chance for storms will remain low.   The wild card is the possibility of a small complex of storms that could impact northeast Oklahoma early late this morning into early afternoon.  Some of the convective allowing models have been hinting as this scenario while other data would suggest any storms would remain slightly north across southeastern Kansas into possibly northwestern Arkansas.  Frankly, we’ll not know for sure until later this morning regarding this possible small MCS scenario. 

Otherwise, the highs should move back into the lower to mid-90s later today along with heat index values around 100 to 103.  If the MCS does materialize, the outflow would cool us down into the 80s later this afternoon. 

The upper air flow is now mostly from the west to east (zonal flow) across most of the nation.  This fast flow aloft will bring a small vort across southern Kansas Sunday into early next week and may trigger a few showers or storms.  The EURO attempts to expand some mid-level ridging across most of the southern plains this weekend before shoving the center to our east early next week. This will generally keep the storm chances very for the weekend into early next week with the GFS slightly more robust for a few storms along the Oklahoma-Kansas state line region.  Our forecast continues to keep only slight mentions for Sunday into early next week with more faith in the EURO ridge. 

Monday into the rest of next week the ridge should be far enough east to allow a chance for a southwest flow to brush part of the state, on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge.  This could bring some daily storm chances into our region, possibly Labor Day into next week.  The GFS is more robust with this scenario while the EURO is less optimistic.   We’ll keep our slight mentions Monday through Wednesday for this forecast cycle. 

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If you’re heading toward Stillwater for the Missouri State and OSU game, we think the tailgate will be toasty with highs in Stillwater around 94 to 96 along with south winds and heat index numbers at 102.  The 7 p.m. kick-off will feature game time temps at 91 with end of game readings into the lower 80s.   While there may be a shower or storm later this afternoon near or north of Stillwater, the game should be storm free with south winds near 10 to 20 mph.

Friday night high school football will feature start time temps in the lower 90s with heat index values around 99.   No precip will occur with the High School Football games Friday night.

The Florida Atlantic & OU game Saturday morning at 11 a.m. will feature kick-off temps around 86 with a heat index near 90.  The end of the game will see temps reaching 94 with heat index values near 100.  South winds will remain elevated around 10 to 25 mph. 

Eastern Illinois will be at Fayetteville.   The Razorbacks will kick-off at 3 p.m. with readings near 90 along with humid weather.   No storms will occur. 

And finally, the Central Arkansas and Tulsa Hurricane game will be Saturday 6 p.m. in Tulsa.  Temps will still be near the high of 96 with index numbers around 100.  A slow temp drop-off will occur with end of game temps into the lower to mid-80s.  No rain is expected.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.