A few showers and storms may linger across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas early this morning through the noon hour, but this probability should quickly end as a mid-level ridge of high pressure expands across Texas into Oklahoma today and this weekend. This will effectively keep almost all the precip out of the area for the next several days as summer-like weather returns to eastern Oklahoma. Highs this afternoon will move into the lower to mid-90s along with noticeable heat index values increasing through the day. The actual data suggest these values will remain well below the heat advisory criteria today. The recent rainfall and green vegetation may provide some higher evapo-transpiration for the next few days that could push these levels into advisory status this weekend into early next week. This general pattern will remain for several days next week keeping our highs in the mid-90s and overnight and morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.
The tail end of some overnight convection is attempting to move southward this morning along with some new development due to a low-level jet. This activity may persist for the morning hours near or north of the metro. Compared to the last several mornings, surface instability is higher and lapse rates are also slightly steeper. This should result in more lightning and possibly even some gusty winds with some stronger storm activity. Yet as I post early this morning, most radar returns appear rather anemic. Severe weather is not expected. Our chances for showers and storms in the metro will remain around the 20% to 40% range for the next few hours but shouldn’t survive too much longer into the midday. The pop for the forecast will be a last second, game time decision. South winds will remain around 10 to 25 mph today keeping our warm and humid weather intact across the state. Southwestern Oklahoma may exceed 100 again today.
The mid-level ridge will move eastward early next week while another southwestern and western US trough begins impacting the inter mountain region. This long wave trough is more prominent in the EURO with the model shoving a weak boundary near northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a few showers and storms. The GFS is less amplified with these features. We’ll keep a slight mention in the forecast for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning of next week. Regardless, the overall pattern recognition supports a return of summer-like weather in the future.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.