August Wet Spell Could Lead to Flooding

Wet weather has taken hold of Green Country and is set to last for an unusually long time. August is certainly not known for rainy days, but they are a tremendous blessing for our land when they come this time of year. This is just what the doctor ordered with Tulsa’s growing year-to-date rainfall deficit is still more than 6 inches. We might be able to make up a lot of lost ground in the next few weeks.

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A slow-moving upper-level low is bringing us the soggy pattern through midweek as it meanders from west Texas to Kansas. To the east of it (Green Country), a significant plume of Gulf moisture will result in multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms. We are seeing the first wave on our Monday afternoon. After a small lull this evening, another round of heavy storms develops. Early Tuesday, a narrow, but intense band of storms likely forms along a boundary setting up from southwest to northeast across the area. This may result in a couple inches of rain falling in a matter of hours, leading to potential flash flooding. The most likely area for this is southeast of Tulsa, but the metro area is still in the mix for this.

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Scattered showers and storms continue during the day, Tuesday but it won’t be an all-day steady rain. Tuesday night, the main upper-level low will push eastward across Kansas and bring a weak front into northern Oklahoma. This will provide another focus for heavy thunderstorms that slowly shift eastward on Wednesday morning across the area. Once again, flash flooding and perhaps locally strong winds are possible. Above is our general rain chance timeline into Wednesday.

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These repeated rounds of rain likely lead to impressive rain totals through midweek as shown above. While most of us will see a nice soaking, one or two areas may see upwards of 3 inches! That will be a nice dent in the worsening drought. We might end up with swollen creeks and rivers as well.

Beyond Wednesday, the jet stream shifts position and brings northwesterly flow over the state. This type of pattern is a conveyer belt for fast-moving waves, generating complexes of storms diving southeast. Starting as early as Thursday night, several of these waves of rain likely move into Green Country, continuing our wet spell after just a 36-hour break in the wet weather. It may be up to a week from now before a cold front clears the area and dries us out a bit. Even the outlook into late August shows wetter AND cooler than normal weather anticipated as shown below!

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Speaking of temperatures, we are in for a treat through midweek due to the clouds and rain. Those readings will be running 10° or more below normal again Tuesday for highs. Even after the rains end midweek, added moisture in the ground and near-surface atmosphere will limit how warm temperatures go during the day. The active weather pattern through the weekend will keep us muggy at worst. This cooler than normal pattern into late August will keep our 100° day count down.  And yes, it’s possible we could be done for good with triple-digit highs!

Enjoy the wet weather and don’t let your guard down with the flood threat!  I’ll have more on the ongoing stormy pattern on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page!