We're moving into another active pattern that will bring additional rain and thunderstorms into the region for a few days. The threat for some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will remain. Flood watches could be issued soon for portions of eastern Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts from 2 to 4 inches will be possible with some higher amounts nearing 4 to 6 inches in localized areas before the upper level system ejects out of the area by late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The upper flow will transition back to a northwest flow pattern by the weekend keeping the rain chances in the forecast along with some not as hot weather. This pattern is slightly unusual for August in Oklahoma.
The timing of precipitation with these events can be tricky. Most of the activity will be diurnally driven, but some precip will survive into the overnight hours closer to the main upper level forcing. We start to see a gradual increase in activity early this morning in a spotty fashion. I would anticipate a higher coverage around midday advancing into our area from the southwest. While the precip chances will remain high for the next few days, there will be a few periodic breaks in the rainfall today and Tuesday before the trough ejects by early Wednesday morning.
The main mid-level ridge of high pressure is across the far northern Rockies into the western US while a quasi-cut off low is currently spinning across part of the southern plains, including near the state. As this feature slowly lifts north and east, additional showers and storms will become more likely later today into Tuesday. The addition of the cloud cover and some rain cooled air should keep the highs near 80 today and into the lower to mid-80s Tuesday. Morning lows are expected to remain in the lower 70s. Our temps will slowly increase by Wednesday and Thursday as the upper feature jets into the faster flow aloft bringing us back into the lower 90s by Friday. Yet the pattern will quickly transition back to the northwest flow with additional storm chances this weekend and below seasonal average readings by a few degrees this weekend.
The main threats will remain heavy tropical like downpours. The severe weather threats will continue to be very low, but one or two storms could produce a wet micro burst Tuesday.
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