We’re void of precip across the state this morning as I post. But don’t be shocked you see a brief shower around sunrise on the radar. The coverage will be very low, but I can’t rule out the low possibilities for one or two somewhere across northern Oklahoma. The chances for additional activity will remain later this afternoon and evening as another upper level disturbance will rotate across the central plains and approach southeastern Kansas later tonight into Saturday morning. Scattered storms would be possible during the peak heating this afternoon with highs into the lower and mid-90s. Some data also support a small complex of storms impacting northeastern Oklahoma overnight into pre-dawn Saturday. A weak boundary may also briefly sneak into the region with light and variable winds into Saturday morning. All of these pops will remain somewhat low in the short term.
This weekend the main upper level pattern will undergo some changes. The mid-level ridge of high pressure is positioned to the west-northwest of the state with the elongated trough extending from the upper Midwest into the plains. As this trough pinwheels across the Missouri Valley this weekend another mid-upper level system is expected to develop at the basal portion. This new low will be cut-off from the main upper level flow for a few days as it slowly migrates northward across part of Oklahoma and the southern plains helping to produce showers and storms. The additional clouds and precip should act to keep the temps below the seasonal average with most locations staying in the lower to mid-80s Monday through Wednesday. We’ll start the pops Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s with increasing precip and lower temps remaining into early next week. The threat for severe weather will remain low. Yet the amount of precipitable water values will remain high. This means the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall could result in some localized flooding issues. It’s too early to pinpoint the exact location for the heaviest rainfall due to the variability in the data. Our specific forecast regarding timing, locations and percentages will go through some changes over the next few days but the general trend will remain consistent.
Temperatures reached the lower 90s yesterday afternoon with heat index values reaching the mid to upper 90s. We’ll stick a 95 on the map for the metro with a heat index of 100 today. The warm and toasty weather continues Saturday before the numbers begin to lower Sunday into early next week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.