Temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s today and into the mid-90s Friday before another system arrives Sunday into early next week with additional storm chances and below seasonal average daytime highs. We can’t totally rule out a few showers or storms today and tomorrow, but the coverage will be low.
The mid-level ridge continues to expand across the western U.S. with a trough becoming elongated across the upper Midwest. The southern plains continue to be in the middle of these two features but will be influenced more from the ridge today and tomorrow versus the trough to the east. There is a small mid-level disturbance that will move across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri today that should develop a few showers and storms later. Additional storms are also possible across far southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas but would quickly move out of the region. It’s the disturbance across southeast Kansas that may shove a few storms into northeastern Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening.
This morning local temps have dropped to near the dew points and some fog will be possible for the pre-dawn to early morning hours in some locations. I’m unclear as to the extent of the coverage but it currently doesn’t appear to be a major issue. Fog can quickly develop so remain aware this morning if you’re traveling during the early morning hours.
The upper air pattern is not indicative of a typical early August for Oklahoma.
This weekend another trough is expected to develop at the base of the main elongated trough and become cut-off from the upper level flow. This system will migrate slowly from the high plains of Texas northward into western Oklahoma Sunday through at least Wednesday and possibly later in the week with active weather near this feature. It’s too early to pinpoint the exact outcome but this pattern would support a likely category of precip chances for the western half of the state during this entire period. The Tulsa metro and eastern Oklahoma will be on the eastern reach of the upper trough but should be close enough to bring some precip chances into the region daily. The anticipation of the cloud cover has given us some confidence to lower the daytime highs into the mid-80s Sunday into early next week. The morning lows will remain around 68 to 73 across eastern Oklahoma . Precipitable water values are expected to remain high and some localized flooding will be possible closer to the main upper level trough.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.