A few showers or storms should survive into part of northeastern Oklahoma this morning from southern Kansas but most of this activity will continue to weaken with time and space. Some hi-res data will keep spotty showers nearby through the first part of the day. A front is expected to move southward and will cross most of the area through midday before stalling across the Red River Valley region of the state. This will create a big temperature contrast today with northeastern Oklahoma in the mid to upper 80s while the southeastern quadrant of the region may experience another day of highs in the upper 90s nearing 100. The heat index values will be from 100 to 105 this afternoon across southeastern Oklahoma. If we do end up with spotty showers through the midday this will keep us much lower than yesterday’s 100 for the metro.
A few scattered showers or storms will remain likely later today across the area but higher chances will arrive again overnight into pre-dawn Friday as storms will attempt to develop along the 850 zone north of the surface front. This could create some precip near the metro overnight. There is currently no major signal for an upstream MCS but we’ll keep a chance of overnight and early morning storms in the forecast regardless. After this pre-dawn period, Friday currently looks mostly dry. This pattern from the northwest to southeast will remain through the weekend with additional storm chances more likely Saturday into Monday. The specific timing is hard to peg with any confidence at this point but seems to indicate Saturday morning, Sunday morning and late Sunday night into Monday morning as higher probability periods.
The front that moves across the area today will eventually retrograde northwest through Saturday before moving southward again Sunday with a much stronger push of cooler air that should last from Sunday into a few days next week. The temps Saturday could rebound above the forecast highs of the metro but the odds for the hotter weather should remain to our west and southwest.
The threat for strong to severe storms will remain very low but not zero during this active period.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.