Some showers and storms will remain possible this morning for a few hours before the ridge of high pressure attempts to build northwestward out of southwestern Oklahoma into Green Country. If this ridge does expand as projected, the temps will hit or exceed 100 Thursday and possibly Friday before the ridge retrogrades westward again for the weekend allowing a weak boundary to slip across northeastern Oklahoma. This front should take the edge of the temps by a few degrees for the weekend, yet the heat index values will remain high. Temperatures yesterday under the ridge across southwestern Oklahoma hit the 100 to 105 range and will be even hotter in these areas of the state today and tomorrow. Our main issues involve the small window for a northwest flow to remain across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas today. This should allow a few storms to move across the area this morning and possibly across east central Oklahoma this morning before they dissipate. The clearing sky later this afternoon will allow temps to move into the at least the mid 90s with some heat index values from 105 to 108. Another heat advisory will remain for the metro and some, but not all counties across eastern Oklahoma.
The leftover storms from northwest Oklahoma are currently moving across northeastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas early this morning. A few pockets of heavy rainfall will remain possible but the general trend will be for these storms to weaken over the next few hours. A small MCV may flare-up some additional strong storms by mid morning on the Arkansas state line but these would move quickly eastward. One or two isolated storms may survive the northwest flow late tonight into Thursday morning across extreme northeast Oklahoma but the ridge should be expanding and eliminating this potential to anything other than a small mention.
The weekend has some issues regarding the exact location and strength of the ridge and also the impact of a weak front on our temperatures.
All data support the ridge moving back to the west this weekend, yet the EURO would keep northeast Oklahoma in a position for 100+ weather while other data suggest some lower readings. Despite the EURO typically being the superior model, the data appears to hot and we’ll keep the weekend a few degrees below the triple digits.
The heat index numbers could reach some uncomfortable levels across eastern Oklahoma for the next few days in some locations with THI values nearing 105 112 in some spots. The southwestern Oklahoma area is under the influence of lower dew points (drier air) allowing hotter conditions and no significant heat index issues.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.