No major changes are going to be made to the forecast package for the next few days. We’re anticipating highs back into the mid-90s today along with THI values anywhere from 99 to 105 across eastern Oklahoma. The dew points yesterday did mix down very slightly during the afternoon and this kept these numbers from getting ridiculous, but I’ll continue to stay slightly above the model guidance again today until we see how the atmosphere resounds. The highest THI values yesterday were in the 103-104 range. We had a few isolated showers across extreme eastern and southeastern Oklahoma yesterday and this will probably happen again today. The chance remains about 5%.
The center of the mid level ridge is now slightly east of us according to the latest and greatest analysis. This feature will keep moving eastward early next week allowing a slug of moisture from the Gulf and Tropical region to move across part of the southern plains sometime early next week. As mentioned here yesterday, there will continue to be some questions regarding the exact trajectories of the moisture and therefore the highest chances for showers and storms next week. This is due to the positioning of some important synoptic scale features in the various models. EURO has the trended well south with the tropical slug of moisture while the GFS rolls it into Oklahoma. For now, we’ve made no major changes for next week but we did reduce the pop slightly. This means highs will drop into the 80s Tuesday through Thursday with a 30% chance of showers and storms around Tuesday through Thursday period. Additional changes are likely to occur before we reach this part of the forecast. Not only will we watch the slug of tropical moisture but a slow-moving front may enter northwestern Oklahoma and part of southern Kansas next week and will remain to our northwest. But this boundary may also have some active weather nearby.
In summary, our weather continues to look toasty with no major relief from the current heat and humidity forecast but a gradual and minor reduction in temperature should continue into early next week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.