We’re still in the middle of MCS season (a complex of thunderstorms) due to the typical June pattern of the migrating subtropical ridge of high pressure and the resulting yet occasionally northwest flow pattern. The mid-level ridge of high pressure has been making its presence felt this weekend with increasing heat and humidity, yet the feature will slide west to southwest soon allowing another northwest flow pattern for a few days this week. This will allow a weak front or at least some outflows to move southward and enter at least northern Oklahoma Tuesday before stalling Wednesday and lifting northward Thursday morning as the ridge waffles back to the east. This will create a few chances for showers and storms, not only along the boundary, but also from the MCS potential, including later tonight into Tuesday pre-dawn and possibly Wednesday pre-dawn.
The front will enter part of northwestern Oklahoma later tonight extending into central and eastern Kansas with a gradual southward shift into early Tuesday morning. This will bring a chance for a few scattered storms along the boundary late tonight. Additionally, a signal will remain for a complex of storms to develop pre-dawn sometime either late tonight or pre-dawn Tuesday across southern Kansas and expand into northern Oklahoma . The timing is still up for grabs but appears to be a late night and early morning deal. The Texas Tech WRF has been doing well this past month compared to others and I may side with this earlier and not later time line. This would mean a possible developing MCS around 11pm to Midnight entering northeastern Oklahoma and pushing into south central or southeastern Oklahoma around 3 am to 5 am. Most of the other CAMS (which have not been doing well recently) would feature a 3 am to 10 am time period. Regardless, if this occurs, damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be possible. The boundary or some kind of outflow will remain near the state Tuesday night into Wednesday and we could have another rinse and repeat cycle with another round of thunderstorm activity for some locations.
As the ridge moves back into the area Thursday through the weekend the temps will climb, and the heat index numbers may approach advisory levels (105+) across part of eastern Oklahoma. The EURO and GFS differ greatly early next week with the EURO sliding the ridge east and allowing a full-fledged flow from the gulf into Oklahoma with several days of tropical rains. The GFS keeps this disturbance across south Texas and our weather mostly high and dry. As always, we have some work to do with the extended forecast. Stay tuned!
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.