Potential Storms and Guaranteed Heat

After the hottest May on record, our first 10 days of June have been running nearly 4° above normal. The summer weather pattern set in early and shows little signs of abating. However, some relief and much-needed rain may be in the offing this week into next.

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A storm system sweeping across the northern and central Plains will send a frontal boundary southward to our doorstep Monday afternoon. Storms may fire along it from north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas late on our Monday in response to a very unstable air mass. Unfortunately, that cold front likely stalls just to our north, but the storms that fire may outrun it, reaching Green Country after dark. Some of our computer models have the storms lasting into the overnight hours, sinking south even across the Tulsa area. There is also a strong possibility that the CAP holds. The upper-level high pressure ridge in place is stout and may not allow storms this far south away from the jet stream. BUT, if storms do fire, they could quickly go severe with a particularly high threat of damaging, downburst winds. If the storms congeal Monday night, they are much more likely to drop south towards us, propelled by the developing cold pool within the storm complex.

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If we miss that opportunity, another may come our way again late Tuesday. Lingering boundaries from the night before and continued muggy weather may trigger more storms as early as the afternoon. Storms may also form west of Green Country but dive into the area late Tuesday or potentially into Wednesday. This stands to be our best shot of much-needed rainfall considering our burgeoning drought situation (shown below) but is definitely not locked in given the subtle nature of these waves aloft.

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Rain totals through Wednesday aren’t likely to fight the drought much. A few spots could pick up over an inch, but most of us will end up with less than half an inch if any rain at all.  As the final wave of energy passes on Wednesday, the ridge will build back and grow stronger through the end of the week. This will allow temperatures to rise another few degrees and for that intense June sunshine to bake us each day through Father’s Day. (Pick an early tee time for dad this weekend if you are golfing!) We won’t be quite in record territory, but not far off either.

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There are signs of greater relief into the following week as shown below. Tropical moisture is likely to undercut this ridge and bring more widespread rainfall to Oklahoma. There might be a Tropical system moving ashore from the Gulf if the GFS computer model has its way (that is still a longshot). A wetter pattern will also mean a cool-down, but likely keep the “muggies” around deeper into summer.

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Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page for more weather updates. Stay cool in the meantime!