Storms that developed yesterday across northwestern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas are moving southeast early this morning and have weakened to below severe levels as I’m posting. Most of this complex is now east or southeast of the metro and will continue to gradually slide out of our area quickly this morning.
We’re expecting warm and muggy weather again later today with highs in the lower to mid-90s before another MCS may brush part of the area later tonight into pre-dawn Thursday before the ridge begins to expand once again over the area. Storms should develop off the front range and dive across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas later tonight into Thursday morning. The higher severe weather threat will remain to our west, but there should be some threats again for damaging wind gusts with this possible complex. The first glance time line would support this MCS nearing northeast Oklahoma around 2 am and exiting around 5 am to 7 am across northeast Oklahoma. There may be some linger showers Thursday through midday and a small signal for a few storms late Thursday night into Friday morning across far northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. I will more than likely not include this late Thursday night pop until I get additional support in the data.
As this mid-level ridge expands, our storm chances will mostly go away, other than a few isolated afternoon t-storms across far eastern Oklahoma Friday & Saturday afternoon. A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma around midday Saturday and move southeast late Saturday evening. Most data support this boundary arriving with no or very little precipitation Saturday. Temps will be close to the triple digits Friday yet the recent green-up will hinder the potential. Saturday a southwest wind may help to punch the numbers up slightly and we’ve elected to go above the guidance for highs. Sunday will be lower behind the front with highs in the upper 80s along with northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.
The ridge slides southwest again early next week and should allow another northwest flow event near the state Tuesday into Wednesday with a surface front nearing around Thursday.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.