Another cluster of thunderstorm activity developed last night well west of the area but is moving eastward early this morning. This activity should continue moving east but will more than likely weaken before reaching most of northeast Oklahoma as our atmosphere is less favorable for maintaining storm intensity this morning eastward. More southward, storms may be able to survive this morning along or south of the I-40 corridor region. I’ll need to keep a chance in the forecast for a few showers or storms near or west of the metro, but most of the northeast part of the state should remain dry this morning but the southern sections could continue with the storms for a few hours. A weak boundary has moved across the area and is positioned to the southwest of Tulsa with northeast winds for the majority of northeast Oklahoma today. A wild card for later today will be a convectively induced area of vorticity that’s driving out of southwestern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma this morning. This feature may be able to generate additional showers or storms later this afternoon into the early evening hours across north central Oklahoma. This will no doubt be a now-cast situation as the day unfolds.
Highs will once again be pleasant when compared to earlier readings this month. Today will be in the lower 80 to mid-80s with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions. The pattern will support another chance for a few storms late tonight into Thursday morning with some leftover MCS type activity moving near the region tomorrow morning but again weakening as it moves east. Most data support a mid-level ridge nudging from north TX into central Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday morning with lower storm chances Thursday afternoon and evening. The position of the ridge will not totally overrun northern Oklahoma and could continue to create a small northwest flow across southeastern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma OK Friday morning. Some of the GFS runs are bringing a complex of storms across this flow early Friday morning. I have not included a big pop in the forecast at this point but it’s something we’ll monitor closely for the next few runs. In summary, the chance will remain Thursday and Friday.
Temps will climb and muggy weather will expand Friday into Saturday with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and THI values into the mid-90s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday and Monday, most data support the ridge flattening and allowing another front to sink southward with additional storm chances late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The EURO is most bullish with a frontal passage while the American counterpart stalls the boundary to the north. Regardless, it appears our unsettled pattern may continue into next week with another messy pattern as a minor southwest flow develops with a weakening trough across the western U.S and abundant mid-May low level moisture across eastern Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.