Our pattern gets a little messy for the next few days this week with several chances for convection yet organized storm chances (for most of eastern Oklahoma) only appear to increase across the area in small time scales. Storms last night across western Oklahoma ahead of the dry line have weakened early this morning with some debris cloud cover floating eastward at this hour. There appears to be a small MCV floating in our direction for the early morning hours that may be able to trigger some early morning isolated storms along or northwest of the I-44 corridor through 10 a.m. This chance will remain low.
Additional storms will fire again this afternoon and evening to our west and may organize into a small complex that could take a run into northeast Oklahoma this evening while weakening late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Most of the stronger to severe storms should remain to the west of the immediate area yet a few severe storms could survive into northeast Oklahoma late tonight or pre-dawn Tuesday morning with wind and hail issues. Tuesday into Wednesday presents more questions than answers for the storm chances due to the lack of any major lifting mechanism across the area despite some weak mid-level forcing. Some data is high and dry while others pointing toward some storm coverage both Tuesday into Wednesday. We’ll need to keep a mention during these periods, but my confidence is low for a day 2 and 3 forecast. Warm and muggy weather will remain.
By Thursday into Friday another mid-level ridge is expected to expand enough to keep us mostly dry yet a small chance of a few isolated storms will remain along with muggy conditions before the pattern brings another system into the area this weekend. Most data support a front finally pushing across northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning with some cooler weather by the afternoon into early next week.
The main upper air pattern has just enough stronger southwest flow nearby to keep the mention for severe weather near or west of the area today and Tuesday. But the hot and muggy atmosphere (more reminiscent of June than May) will also offer wet down bursts for mature storms this week.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.