The pressure gradient will tighten up today with strong south winds increasing today from 20 to near 35 mph. A few models runs have wind gusts over 40 mph. Regardless of your model of choice, these top-end wind gusts will be close to advisory level criteria for some locations northwest of the Tulsa area this afternoon. Highs will climb back into the upper 80s near 90 along with some sunshine after the morning clouds begin thinning out by midday. The data has been hinting at a few spotty showers this morning but so far, we’re in good shape. I may need to punt on 3rd down and add a mention around sunrise, but will keep it dry for now.
The upper air pattern will begin changing this weekend into early next week, eventually allowing for more storm chances across part of the state next week. But in the short term, the higher chances this weekend through Monday should remain to our northwest or west.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to nose into part of the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas and portions of eastern Oklahoma while the surface ridge is positioned across far southeastern U.S. A possible TUTT may develop off the coast of Alabama Sunday into Monday for the short term. Meanwhile across the western U.S., a broad upper level trough will continue to deepen as the upper air flow becomes more from the southwest Sunday into early next week. The positioning of these features will keep most of the active weather across the high plains of Texas into western Oklahoma this weekend. This means storms should remain away from eastern Oklahoma this weekend with only a few slight chance of a decaying complex nearing the area pre-dawn Monday.
The pattern may allow a few more storms to near the area Tuesday into Wednesday as the ridge is expected to weaken and a surface boundary to our northwest will have a chance to sink southward. The EURO has been throwing some MCS signals our way for Tuesday and Wednesday morning but the data is inconsistent. Regardless, rich low-level moisture is expected to flow into the eastern Oklahoma area this weekend through next week bringing muggy, early summer-like conditions into our area. A consensus in the pattern and model data supports the main western U.S. trough weakening as it sends small waves around the base through the middle of next week. In addition, the GFS is attempting to develop a big tropical storm late in the runs while the EURO does not. This will result in a rather messy pattern creating uncertainty. We’ll have storm chances through the middle of the week. A surface front could move across the area by the middle to end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.