Our pattern will continue to change this weekend into early next week as a powerful upper level trough becomes established across the western U.S. with a strong southwest flow moving over the southern and central plains. This pattern, typical for spring, will bring severe weather chances into the plains next week. The specifics will continue to be refined daily as important features become more certain in the data. As of this morning, a few storms will be possible Tuesday to our west, yet higher chances will unfold Wednesday into Thursday for eastern Oklahoma. Any of the storm chances next week could feature severe weather possibilities.
This morning we’re in great shape with clear sky and temps in the 40s and 50s for many locations along with some patchy fog in a few of the typical colder valley locations. Northwest winds from 10 to 15 mph will remain for the day along with sunshine and highs in the lower 70s as a mid-level ridge of high pressure begins to impact the area. A weak back-door type boundary may slide across northeastern Oklahoma tomorrow with northeast winds and pleasant weather. Temps are expected to remain pleasant with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday also appears quite pleasant with highs nearing the 80-degree mark after morning lows in the 50s. You’ll notice the south winds increasing speeds Sunday afternoon but even more so early next week with wind speeds from 20 to 30 mph as the upper level ridge slides eastward Sunday as low pressure begins to develop across the Lee of the Rockies in response to the deepening trough across the western U.S. This will allow rich low-level moisture from the Gulf to arrive across the state Monday through Wednesday. A dry line is likely to firm-up across part of western Oklahoma trailing from the surface low across either eastern Colorado or somewhere in the central plains states. Locations along and ahead of the dry line will become increasingly unstable with time next week as several waves of instability rotating around the basal portion of the trough and interacting with the moisture. Strong wind speeds aloft and wind changing direction with height will allow storms to become severe. Eventually, a surface front will move across the state bringing heavy rainfall threats and severe weather before dry air follows either Thursday night or Friday morning. The timing of this system and the impacts may continue to change for the next few days before model data and our confidence becomes more secure.
In the meantime, enjoy the pleasant spring like weather for the weekend. And keep the sunscreen handy!