Cool weather is underway this morning with many locations reporting the 30s and lower 40s across northeast Oklahoma. A few spots will hit the freezing mark across far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. A surface ridge of high pressure is located across part of Kansas and will bring pleasant yet cool weather back into the Missouri Valley and northeast Oklahoma today with highs in the lower 60s north and mid to upper 60s south. A light northeast wind around 5 to 10 mph will be likely. This ridge will exit the area quickly tonight as the next strong upper level system rapidly approaches the southern plains by the weekend with increasing rain and storm chances. The main trend in the forecast has not changed but the timing may still wiggle slightly in the model runs today.
The next upper level low will move closer to the state Friday night into Saturday with a surface low developing across the Lee of the Rockies soon. The surface low is still expected to take a southern route by Friday night into Saturday and this will quickly bring northeast winds into the metro with cool air Saturday morning to midday. Rain and some thunder will be likely Saturday morning near or west of the area and should be expanding eastward through the day with some pockets of moderate rainfall, more so across the southern sections of the state. The severe weather threats should remain well south of the region with this system. We’ve had a high pop on the map for the entire run-up this week but there will be some wiggle room for a few small number of folks to remain on the dry side Saturday across far northeast Oklahoma before the back edge of the system swings by Saturday night into Sunday morning. We’re anticipating that most locations across eastern Oklahoma should experience the rainfall Saturday.
The GFS has continued to be the faster of the data and would require us to drop Saturdays highs a few degrees and to end the precip near sunrise Sunday morning. The EURO, however, has trended slightly more northward with the main upper level low and consequently attempt to draw the surface low up into southeastern Oklahoma by Sunday morning. This data remains the slower of the two and would keep us in the precip chances for roughly the first part of Sunday morning before exiting around noon.
Weather for Monday looks pleasant with a ridge of high pressure nudging from the southwest Missouri region into northeast Oklahoma with sunshine and highs in the upper 60s near 70 but a fast-moving upper level system would quickly bring a front into the area Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This would attempt to bring a front across the state Tuesday with a few showers but low-level moisture should not be overly robust. I might include a low 10% pop for this period. The data by the middle to end of next week is totally out of phase between the two major sets of data for these periods. More on this later tomorrow.
Thanks again for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.