Our next impactful storm system will arrive Friday with rain and thunderstorms followed by a sharp cold front that brings winter temps back to the state. The pattern will gradually change next week with warmer temps eventually spreading across the southern plains, including Oklahoma. A fast yet weak mid to upper level impulse will move across the state this morning through midday from the northwest to southeast and could produce a few sprinkles near the metro and a few small showers or storms across southeastern Oklahoma. This will be insignificant. Highs will rebound into the lower to mid-60s with south winds near 10 to 15 mph.
A surface low pressure area will form across southeast Colorado into the high plains of Texas tonight and drop southwest Friday morning to midday. This low will eventually scoot across the Lone Star state Friday night into Saturday. A strong upper level low will continue to be centered across the Great Lakes into southern Canada with northwest flow aloft diving down the back side from the inter mountain region into the southern plains. As a lead wave ejects around the basal portion of this trough, another strong surface front will roll southward, entering northern Oklahoma Friday midday or afternoon and quickly moving into southern Oklahoma by afternoon or evening. The positioning of the surface low in relation to the boundary will bring moisture up and over the front resulting in rain developing across northern Oklahoma Friday morning to midday. Further north, into eastern or central Kansas, the deeper and colder air will support snow. As the front encounters southeastern Oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening, storms will develop, including the possibility of strong to severe storms in the form of large hail. We think most of this will occur slightly south of our main areas of interest, but locations south of I-40 would need to remain aware of this possibility. More than likely, locations along the Red River into northeast Texas would be in a more favorable position for severe storms.
As the cold air moves into northern Oklahoma our temps will drop from the mid-50s by noon into the upper 30s or lower 40s by late afternoon with strong north winds. Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday freezing temps are likely with lows dropping into the mid-20s with stout north winds. The data suggest that most, it not all of the moisture will be gone from our immediate area before having a chance to change to any impactful wintry precip. Yet, I’ll need to keep a slight mention in the forecast for this very possibility just in case the data flips.
Saturday morning will be quite cold with lows in the mid-20s. Daytime highs will remain in the lower or mid 40s with north winds gradually decreasing by midday to afternoon.
Another fast-moving system will drop across the state Sunday, but the moisture return may be limited. The GFS data has been more bullish with some pops compared to the EURO, so I’ll keep a slight chance for Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly for eastern and southeastern Oklahoma.
Monday into Tuesday at first glance appears fine but we’re starting to change to the pattern next week. We’ll transition from a northwest to west and then southwest flow by midweek to late week. This will bring some warmer weather into northeast Oklahoma by Wednesday and Thursday but may also bring a storm system nearing Thursday into next weekend. If the pattern does change as expected, our active weather season would begin to ramp up with thunderstorm chances, including the threats of severe weather.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.