Welcome to the warming trend. Temps in the 40s now will enter the mid-70s this afternoon along with gusty south winds from 20 to 30 mph and mostly sunny sky. The fire danger will be increasing again due to the strong winds but relative humidity will also increase slightly later today. A strong system well west of the area this morning will send a lead disturbance into the state later tonight with a small window for a few showers or storms exiting the area early Friday morning. Our next chance will arrive sometime either late Saturday night or Sunday as the main upper level system will eject into the central plains. A few of the Sunday storms could be strong to near severe near our area as the main system brushes the region but the odds will continue to remain low for severe probabilities. The outlook for spring break appears somewhat pleasant until later next week when another storm system arrives Friday or Saturday.
I think we’re good for most of the area later tonight but there will be a very small window late this evening, around midnight through pre-dawn Friday for a few high based showers or storms to develop as the lead wave ejects across the state. A quasi-warm front will develop and move quickly into southwestern Missouri or east central Kansas where the better chance for organized thunderstorm should occur. But I’ll need to keep a slight mention in our forecast just in case a few develop across northeastern Oklahoma. This profile has the tendency to sweep better moisture quickly eastward.
Friday afternoon the surface dry line will approach the metro around midday with dry air west of the line and higher humidity to the east. If the dry line can pass the metro before peak heating ends, we’ll have the chance to hit 80 for the afternoon along with southwest winds from 15 to 30 mph. The dry air would cause the Fire Danger to quickly ramp-up to near Red Flag warning conditions near and west of Tulsa for a few hours during the late afternoon period. A surface front will cross the area late Friday night into Saturday morning with north winds and a minor cool down. Saturday appears fine for most of the day with highs in the 60s near 70.
Late Saturday night into Sunday morning the next chance for a few showers or storms will arrive with southeast winds returning across the state as the main upper level trough draws closer to the inter mountain region. This period may have a chance for a few strong to near severe storms before the trough ejects into the central plains Monday. A surface front will move across the area late Sunday night into Monday with north winds and a minor cool-down. The data this morning is hinting at some wrap around showers that may impact far northeastern OK Monday afternoon into the evening hours but I’m hesitant to add these pops at this point in the forecast cycle. The next stronger storm system will probably approach the area late next week or early in the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.