You may have noticed the slightly warmer weather yesterday afternoon as daytime highs moved into the mid and upper 80s across eastern Oklahoma. If you didn’t, you probably will notice the warm-up today with highs around 90 and for the weekend as daytime highs are expected to move back into the lower 90s along with gusty south winds and slightly increasing humidity. After basically spending the entire month of August and early September below the normal averages, we’re going to be moving above the baseline for the next 8 to 10 days with morning lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s followed by highs in the lower or even mid 90s for some locations. Our next major fall front will more than likely not arrive until on or after September 24th or 25th.
The upper air pattern will change soon with a trough developing across the western U.S. and a mid-level ridge near and south of the state for the next few days. A surface trough to our northwest will deepen slightly over the next 36 hours with increasing southeast surface winds from 15 to 25 mph. A few isolated showers or storms may be possible Friday across far northwestern Oklahoma but the odds will remain low. The GFS is the outlier with some active weather Saturday across central and eastern Oklahoma but with low support from the EURO, I’ll not include this on the Saturday period. This weekend a surface front to our north will slide southward Saturday night and enter southern Kansas or possibly far northwestern Oklahoma helping to spark-off a few showers or storms. Most of these will remain to the north but a few across northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas will be possible. The actual chance will remain low but I think it’s one worth mentioning on the big 7-day planner. The upper air flow will not give this front a big push and the boundary will retreat northward into the central plains Monday leaving our region in the warm and moist sector.
A possible pacific tropical system may eventually become caught into the southwest flow and move near northwestern Oklahoma or southwestern Kansas Monday night into Tuesday with a few storms but the data differs on the outcome of this solution. This chance will also remain quite low for my forecast update. Later next week additional waves of instability will round the base of the western trough and eject into the plains with scattered storm potential increasing for the middle to end of next week. While not a true forecast but a signal from the data, I’ll continue to mention this possibility for the extended periods. This pattern typically does not last long this time of year as the westerlies begin the usual migration southward with the annual decreasing sun angle. That’s why I’ll anticipate another decent fall front to arrive sometime after the 24th or 25th. Stay tuned and we’ll see how that works out!
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.