We’re starting to move into the active weather pattern that will bring storm chances back to the region beginning with a slight chance this afternoon and then into Thursday morning along and north of the Tulsa metro. Severe weather is not expected. Another stronger wave with a better chance for storms will arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning followed by yet other chances for the weekend. Severe weather threats are low but not zero. The main impact from the possible thunderstorms Friday into the weekend will be pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall that could result in some localized flooding issues. There will be, at times, a severe weather threat for damaging winds. Temperatures will remain well below the seasonal averages with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal this weekend.
The overall pattern remains unchanged from yesterday with a strong trough of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes northward into the Hudson Bay region of Canada and a ridge of high pressure basically to the south and southwest of the state. This essentially creates a northwest flow pattern across the central and southern U.S that will help to bring the active weather back to the region.
Most of today will remain dry. Later this afternoon will see a slight chance of a few storms near and north of the metro. Some storm chances will need to be carried Thursday morning for the northern sections and I have elected to keep this at 30% to near 40% including a mention for Tulsa northward.
The following chances into Friday and beyond will require higher chances but may still undergo some timing and trajectory differences. At this point, the late night and early morning storm complexes will remain in the forecast through Monday morning.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.