Another heat advisory will be required today for locations near and south of the metro before a front brings a change in our air mass to the eastern third of the state Friday through the weekend. Temperatures today will continue to be rather warm with highs in the mid to upper 90s from the metro southward along with THI values from 105 to 110.
Locations north of the Highway 412 corridor region will see highs in the lower 90s today along with decreasing low level moisture by midday to afternoon. Thus no advisories will be required for these areas today unless the front continues to slow.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible this morning across part of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas ahead of the front. These may persist for a few hours before dropping out by mid morning. But the better chance for stronger thunderstorms will occur late this afternoon and this evening as the front slowly progresses southward into the region. Scattered storms will be capable of producing pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall along with one or two storms that may produce some damaging downbursts of wind. The chance for severe weather will remain very low but not totally zero. We’ll need to keep the coverage rather low as a number of locations will remain dry.
This front should be near or south of the metro early Friday morning. But we’ll need to keep a mention for some activity tomorrow morning for a few hours near Tulsa and a higher chance across southern Oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening as the boundary moves into the Red River Valley region of the state. Some data support a NW flow disturbance Friday afternoon with a few storms near the metro. We have elected to keep this mention out of the forecast, at least for now.
This weekend a major pattern change will be taking place as a trough become more dominate across the Midwestern U.S. into southeastern Canada while a mid to upper level ridge of high pressure centers over the Southwestern U.S. into the central Rockies. This will create a northerly to northwesterly flow aloft pattern for the central plains including Oklahoma. This pattern can bring us additional precipitation chances but at this point we think most of the rain chances this weekend should remain across far western Oklahoma. We have been seeing some signals in the data for MCS-MCC activity early next week near eastern Oklahoma but have discounted this data until higher confidence arrives in the suggestions.
Cooler and much drier air will be likely across the Ohio River Valley and some of the dry air will advect into the Missouri Valley Saturday into early next week. Most data support upper 50s and lower 60 dew points arriving near eastern OK Sunday into Monday. This will allow the morning lows to drop into the 60s for the metro and even slightly cooler across far eastern OK early next week while daytime highs this weekend into early next week should remain around 90. Northeast surface winds are likely to remain from Friday through Monday and possibly Tuesday of next week. Highly unusual, for late July and early August. Eventually the potential will arrive for additional showers and storms near our area sometime late next week and possibly into next weekend.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!