Today looks rather toasty with highs moving into the mid-90s along with southwest surface winds and temperature heat index values nearing 100 to 106. If the local dews don’t mix out a few degrees, some locations across eastern Oklahoma could be in heat advisory criteria by the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma. Keep hydrated today with plenty of water and take frequent breaks when working outside.
Another break will arrive later tonight as the mid-level flow will again be from the northwest to southeast allowing for several chances for showers and storms to move across northeastern and eastern Oklahoma tonight through the weekend. The models have almost all offered a slightly higher confidence for showers and storms to move across the area during this period, but we’ll continue to remain relatively low on the pops compared to actual model output as a small variation in trajectory could offer big changes on the storm probabilities for northeastern Oklahoma. There will also be a possibility of strong to severe storms including some damaging wind potential with some hail in stronger cells. The tropical-like moisture will lead to efficient rainfall producers and locally heavy rainfall may result in some very localized flooding issues due mainly to runoff. Again, only a few locations will experience storms later tonight with some higher coverage possible Saturday morning through midday.
The air mass is not going to change too much this weekend even though there should be a small reduction in the daytime highs for the northern half of the region with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and into the lower 90s Sunday. THI values will remain on the muggy side this weekend before the mid-level ridge expands over the area early next week bringing even higher temperatures and heat indices across the eastern third of the state. As stated yesterday, the data keeps the ridge in place for most of next week before shifting slightly west and weakening. This may open the door for a few storms next weekend but the odds continue to support the ridge remaining as the dominate weather feature next week.
The timing of activity later tonight into Saturday morning may change but we anticipate a window of opportunity beginning around 7 pm tonight through around midnight and then also pre-dawn Saturday through early morning. Another chance will arrive with scattered storm potential Saturday afternoon before another small MCS (storm complex) may arrive across northern Oklahoma pre-dawn Sunday morning.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!