The next two days will be characterized by windy and muggy conditions as rich low level moisture returns from the Gulf of Mexico into the state with temperature heat index values nearing 100 by Thursday afternoon. Winds will be gusting to near 30 mph today as a powerful upper level system moves across the central and northern high plains. This system will shove a surface cold front southward that will reach northwestern Oklahoma Thursday night and will move into northeastern Oklahoma Friday before stalling this weekend near the region. The focus of the boundary along with rich low level moisture will provide several chances for showers and storms, including the potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms.
Storms developed last night to our north and west but the upper air pattern is changing this morning from the northwest flow to mostly a zonal or west to east flow. This means most of the storms that are currently north of the state will remain to the north. Highs this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most locations moving into the lower 90s. The same weather is likely to occur Thursday before the front nears the northwestern sections later in the evening.
Friday through the weekend the boundary should be across part of northern Oklahoma possibly south of the metro Friday afternoon, before stalling and slowly lifting northward by Sunday. We'll need to keep decent pops in the forecast for this entire period but not all locations will receive rainfall with this event. The front will lift northward Sunday or possibly become diffuse late Sunday night into Monday. I’ll keep Friday at 60% but may lower the pop slightly Saturday but still in the 40% range for most folks. This will be a last second decision before air-time.
Most data start building a mid-level ridge across the southwestern U.S. early next week but also bring a small mid-level trough across the central plains into the upper Missouri Valley either Sunday night into Monday or Monday night into Tuesday. This pattern could easily bring another weak boundary near northern Oklahoma Monday or Tuesday with a few storms a possibility. This of course will corresponded to the July 3rd and 4th time period and could have impacts on numerous outdoor activities if the storms do indeed form. Our chances will remain low for this period early next week but I do encourage you to remain aware of the forecast for changes and updates.
After early next week, the data continue to slowly expand the ridge eastward with increasing temps for the middle to end of the week. But we still will not move into the typical summer ridge as the data keeps most the center to the west.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!