We're tracking a cold front that will move across northern Oklahoma today and across southern Oklahoma this afternoon into the evening with a chance for showers and storms. The threat for severe weather will remain low with the higher chances occurring across southern Oklahoma later this afternoon and tonight. This front will open the gate for some " not as hot" weather through the weekend with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. You’ll also notice some lower humidity values this weekend as drier air will arrive from the northeast. Some additional showers or storms may be possible this weekend but the odds still appear rather low at this moment. The overall pattern may continue to support the potential for nocturnal storms next week with a weak to moderate northwest flow pattern persisting across the southern and central plains.
The leftover circulation from T.S.Cindy is rapidly ejecting to the northeast this morning as strong upper trough across the Midwest is moving eastward. A surface front associated with this system is moving southward this morning and will cross sometime today. The short-term data offers highly variable solutions regarding the exact evolution and timing of this front today. But basically, this front should bring a chance for showers and storms to part but not all the area. The chance has been changing some in the data this past few days but we should continue to be in the running for a few storms later today before the front sags southward. North winds will develop across the northern sections with temps topping out in the mid-80s today along with warmer air located across southern Oklahoma before the front crosses those areas this afternoon. Stronger storms will be possible as the boundary encounters a more unstable air mass along with warmer air and higher tropical moisture content. This water value may lead to efficient rainfall makers for the stronger cells. If the front slows down and does not cross the metro until early afternoon, a few stronger to near severe storms would be possible across northern Oklahoma.
Saturday the morning lows will start in the 60s with highs staying in the lower to mid-80s along with north winds and partly cloudy sky. There may be another wave dropping across the western sections by tomorrow that could produce additional storms but the higher probability may remain to the west and southwest.
The data has finally locked into a more reliable solution for Sunday. EURO data had been proposing a big storm complex Sunday morning across northern Oklahoma while the GFS has been consistently void of this system. The EURO is typically the superior model and is now trending toward the American cousin with a dry and pleasant forecast for Sunday. We’ll keep a low pop in the forecast in case the data flips.
The pattern next week would support a chance for a few late night and early morning storms and we’ll keep this low pop in the forecast. Eventually the ridge will move eastward with decreasing chances and increasing temperatures.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.