Good morning. Warm and windy conditions will remain today as a powerful upper level system ejects into the northern inter mountain region to the northern high plains.Heat index values will be in the mid to upper 90s today along with south winds from 15 to 30 mph.
The pattern will bring a few storms into the area by the middle to late week period. A slight chance of a few storms may continue for the approaching weekend with no major change in temperatures.
Looks like our best or better chances for thunderstorms across northeastern OK will occur late Wednesday night into Thursday with a chance Friday morning and possibly early in the weekend. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain in control of most of eastern OK today and tomorrow before weakening and moving eastward. A dry line will establish across the high plains of Texas while a powerful upper level system will eject from the inter mountain region into the northern high plains.
This more northern track with the main upper level system is right on time with the northern stream migrating northward while the ridge begins its attempt to dominate the southern plains.This eventually outcome of summer won’t occur for a while. This current ridge will move eastward creating a more favorable flow for a weak front to enter northern OK or southern Kansas Wednesday before stalling in this general area to the north.
A few storms will occur both today and tomorrow near and slightly ahead of the dry line but will not make the trip eastward into eastern OK. A few showers or storms may develop across northeast Texas and spread into far southeastern OK both today and tomorrow but also remain well south of our immediate area of concern.
Finally, a few storms may develop Wednesday across the far northern area by the late evening hours, but the better shot appears to arrive Thursday morning into Friday as the pattern will support a more robust northwest flow aloft, also another typical feature in the early to mid-June period.
The data also suggest a favorable pattern for a few storms to brush the southern Kansas and northeastern OK area this weekend but we’ll keep the pops on the low side for now.
Temps will remain quite toasty but shouldn’t change too much due to the influence of the added low level moisture and the role of evapotranspiration with moisture into the local areas. This means the temperature heat index numbers may be nearing 96 to 100 soon with daytime highs in the lower 90s for the week. We could see slightly warmer temps this weekend.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!