The main upper level trough of interest is located to the west-southwest of the region this morning but will be much closer to our area today for scattered showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma. I anticipate a greater coverage today across eastern Oklahoma compared to the previous three days and our probability will remain near 50% to 60% for the area. While locations across far southeastern Oklahoma will have the highest probability, we’ll see scattered showers and storms across the northern third of the area today. Temperatures today will reach the lower upper 70s to lower 80s but any rain-cooled areas would be as much as 10 to 15 degrees cooler under the precipitation. No severe weather is expected but pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along with some small hail and gusty winds. Cloud to ground lightning will also be a hazard later today and this afternoon for some of the stronger cells. Heavy rainfall is a possibility with some cells and a flood watch will be posted for extreme southern Oklahoma and north Texas today. While this currently does not include any counties in our viewing (forecast) area, heavy downpours may be possible today in some locations.
Sunday the trough will continue to be near the area but will slide more to the south. This means while we’ll continue to have some chances for scattered showers and storms the chances will be decreasing after the early morning hours from the north to the south. Highs Sunday may rebound into the mid-80s by later in the afternoon. Data this morning also has a small signal for some precipitation Monday across the far southern sections of the area. I’m leaning toward not including this mention in the forecast but will make a last-minute decision before post time.
The upper air flow will allow a weak back-door front to move across northeastern Oklahoma Monday. While this boundary will not bring significantly cooler air, it will bring slightly lower dew point temps which will bring the humidity values down for most of eastern Oklahoma Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be some reduction in temperatures compared to Mondays daytime high of near 90 with the Tue through Thursday temps starting in the upper 50s and lower 60s with highs in the lower 80s. The pattern may bring a system near the state by the middle to end of next week but has flipped a few times in the data. At this point, the latter half of the extended will remain dry.
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Have a super great day!