The front is moving across northern and eastern Oklahoma on schedule this morning with a few spotty showers across eastern Oklahoma. Northwest winds and cooler air will remain across the state today with highs in the upper 60s north and a few lower 70s south. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible later today as another disturbance pivots around the main trough positioned across the upper Midwest. Colder air aloft will support a mention for a few storms that may produce some small hail or graupel at times this afternoon but the odds are still very low. We’ll probably be precip free Wednesday across our region with a few showers possible across far northwestern Arkansas but this chance also remains very low. Temps both Tuesday and Wednesday will be cool with morning lows in the 40s and 50s along with daytime highs about 70 or so. This means most the afternoon for both Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 60s.
The coverage of precipitation may be rather sparse this morning before increasing slightly by afternoon across the southern sections. Then later this afternoon into the early evening hours, a few spotty showers may still slide across far northern Oklahoma before falling apart around 8 pm tonight. I probably could get away with a 20 to 30 pop today but will more than likely stick with our currently advertised 40-percent.
The upper flow will transition from the northwest to west to southwest flow by later in the week but the main trough developing will be well north of the Rockies, and probably across the northern inter mountain region, maybe even into southern Alberta. A low-pressure area developing in southeastern Colorado Thursday into Friday will support south winds returning along with increasing humidity across the state through the weekend. The GFS data seems to be rather fast and stout with the moisture return and would offer a few storms Friday morning across far northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. We had this in the works a few days back but yanked the pops yesterday. I’ll keep it out for another day and see how the data arrives this morning.
Temps will move back into the mid-80s along with a few storms possible Saturday into Sunday. The pattern supports the mention of severe thunderstorms Saturday across the southern plains, including most of central and eastern Oklahoma but it’s a little early to pinpoint the exact outcome for the weekend. EURO is very fast-progressive with the system offering no post frontal precip Sunday while GFS ( the current run) has fast moving disturbance on the cool-side aiding in showers Sunday morning. Again, at this point, we’ll keep Sunday precip free until we see a few more runs to offer some more confidence in either solution.
The unofficial start of the summer season occurs this weekend with the Memorial Weekend and Memorial Day with many folks engaging outdoor activities. We’ll encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings as we are moving the Friday and Saturday period. The main system should be exiting the state sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday morning followed by another frontal passage Sunday and pleasant weather Sunday afternoon into most of Monday.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.,
Have a super great day!