Nasty storms moving into far W OK late this afternoon will be weakening as they move eastward for the early night time hours. But, another round of showers/storms are expected to develop out west and form a squall line which will have a better chance of reaching this side of the state towards morning. That activity will also be weakening as it moves this way, but there could still be some small hail and locally gusty winds along with some thunder for first thing Wednesday morning.
That will be followed by a break in the action for the rest of the day Wednesday and into the day Thursday before things start to get real interesting for the Fri/Sat time frame. Notice the upper level wind chart as of this evening in which I have labeled storm #1 and storm #2. Storm #1 will be ejecting to the NE and spreading the showers/storms our way for later tonight. So, for the overnight hours, expect mostly cloudy skies, gusty SE winds, and temperatures to hold in the 70s until we get some rain-cooled air just before sunrise which should drop temperatures into the upper 60s. Not everyone will get rain out of this first round as the activity will be weakening rather quickly as it moves through Green Country.
However, as the storm center aloft lifts to the NE, we will have rapidly clearing skies behind it so look for lots of sunshine for the afternoon hours of Wednesday. Together with strong and gusty SSW winds up to 40 mph, that should push our daytime highs into the upper 80s and some will likely make it to 90 for the first time since back in March.
Thursday will also be between the two storm systems but we are expecting a little more cloud cover to knock temperatures down a degree or two that afternoon after a very warm start that morning as you can see on our forecast page. However, storm #2 will start to make its influence known by early Friday morning as there looks to be some energy aloft moving across the state by then to push another round of showers/storms through. But, the big show still looks to be that night when the main storm center aloft will be in a better position to produce a more widespread line of storms.
Notice on the map for Friday evening, you can see that very strong winds aloft will be moving right over our part of the state creating a very dynamic environment for showers/storms, some of which will likely be severe. Right now, it appears we will have a very vigorous line of storms moving through which may limit the tornado threat, but that is still several days away so is certainly subject to change.
One thing that still looks to be a significant factor is the potential for locally very heavy rainfall. Notice with the multiple rounds of showers/storms that are expected, the QPF numbers remain quite high and certainly suggest the potential for some significant flooding. Keep in mind, these numbers represent an areal average and some locations could receive much more and others much less, but any way you look at it, the potential is certainly there for too much rain too fast.
At this time frame, the coming weekend still has some timing issues that have not yet been resolved regarding how much lingering shower activity we may have to deal with. It will certainly be cooler with northerly winds behind a cold front arriving Saturday morning but the longer range guidance has not come into agreement regarding how much additional shower activity we may have for the balance of the day Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday morning. For now, will keep at least a mention of showers for Saturday which should be tapering off that night or by early Sunday morning.
One thing they do agree on is that we will be cooler than normal through the weekend and for the first part of next week. In fact, another cool front looks to be arriving on Tuesday with another chance of showers/storms to be followed by a continuation of cooler than normal temperatures. Notice that trend is also picked up by the 8-14 day guidance which continues to suggest temperatures, on average, running below normal. This time frame takes us up to Memorial Day and notice we will also have a wetter than normal pattern through that time frame as well.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.