A Warm Afternoon

Monday, May 15th 2017, 4:09 am

The pattern will become very active for the middle to end of the week with at least two separate storm systems bearing down upon the southern plains and the state.   The first will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and the 2nd, and possibly more stronger system, will arrive Thursday through Friday before exiting either Saturday or Sunday morning.   Severe weather threats will remain with both systems with the better severe weather threats for the end of the week.  Heavy rainfall threats may also be increasing, more so also with the late week opportunity.   Our weather today will remain pleasant yet breezy and warm with highs in the mid-80s along with sunshine and gusty south winds from 15 to 20 mph.   Tuesday will be dry for eastern OK while storms will develop by afternoon and evening across the western third of the state.   Our window for storms will arrive mostly pre-dawn Wednesday for the eastern and northeastern OK area.   This first system will quickly exit Wednesday midday with the next upper level storm quickly developing across the inter mountain region.   South winds will remain as the first system exits keeping a good fetch of Gulf moisture across eastern OK for the rest of the week.   The 2nd system may arrive with two or even three separate waves of storms before the upper trough clears the sometime this weekend.   Thursday afternoon and evening additional storms will develop across the western part of the state and migrate eastward Friday morning.   Some of these storms will be severe with all modes of severe weather a possibility.  A surface front will move southeastward late Friday into Saturday eventually taking a round of storms across eastern OK and out of the area by Saturday afternoon or evening.   If the current timing holds, we eventually be rain-free by Saturday morning across northern sections.  But we have controversy as the GFS and EURO display some large differences on the overall upper air progression with the 2nd system.   Basically, the GFS is faster and the EURO is much slower.  Thus, the confidence in the weekend forecast remains rather iffy at this point!   Hopefully we’ll have a better handle on the data in the next few runs and can offer some better advice regarding the timing for the weekend.     The pattern may also be active for most of next week with additional storm systems moving across the southern and central plains. 

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s along with sunshine and south winds from 10 to 20 mph.
Tuesday morning lows will be in the lower to mid-60s with daytime highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny sky and gusty south winds from 15 to 30 mph.

Tuesday night late into Wednesday storms will become more likely.   Some of the storms may be strong to near severe early Wednesday morning, but the storms will be weakening as they move northeast by Wednesday morning.  

Wednesday the lows will be in the 50s.  Highs will be in the mid-80s.   South winds will remain.

Thursday into Friday additional storms will be likely.  Some severe weather seems likely by Friday, and again Friday night into Saturday morning.   Heavy rainfall will also be possible during this period across eastern OK.   The data is unclear regarding this weekend but storm chances may be increasing for Sunday as well.  At this point, the chance will remain low.  

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone