We’re tracking a storm system that will bring chances for thunderstorms back into the state during the next 48 hours. Some severe weather threats will remain with this system.
Highs today will be back into the lower to mid-80s with a sun-cloud mix and south winds near 15 to 20 mph. I can’t totally rule out a stray sprinkle or two across eastern OK as moisture moves northward but the chance remains very low. The main upper level trough of interest is still west of the region this morning but will be passing over the state Thursday. Several of the convective allowing models develop storms Wednesday across the I-35 area ( well west of the dryline) and move these storms into northeastern and eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening. While we already have a probability in the forecast Wednesday for some thunderstorm activity, this scenario would require a higher pop than currently advertised. My confidence will remain low for this period, but I’ll juice up the pop slightly for Wednesday (up to 40-percent) based on this data.
A surface area of low pressure should develop across part of southeastern Colorado or the high plains of Texas into the Oklahoma panhandle Wednesday night and move east to southeast during the day Thursday. South winds will keep pumping low level moisture into the region with storms developing basically Thursday afternoon and evening across central and eastern Oklahoma. The synoptic pattern and local climatology would suggest the potential for severe storms and we’ll continue to keep this mention in the forecast. The track of the surface low, at least with most data to our south, may keep the higher severe weather threats slightly southeast of the metro Thursday night. But we’ll need to mention the possibility of severe storms for eastern Oklahoma with this system. Once the upper trough passes the area early Friday morning, a surface cold front will be sweeping southeastward across the state taking the storms east or southeast and bringing dry and cool conditions back to the state as another mid-level ridge temporally positions across the state. The last few runs of the GFS data support a vort topping the mid-level ridge and helping to develop storms both Sunday morning and Monday morning across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. There is very little support with the EURO data but we may need to add some mentions for these time periods. At this point in the forecast process, we’ll introduce a slight chance of showers and storms for Monday.
This morning the lows will be near 62-65. The highs will be near 83 along with increasing clouds and south winds from 15 to 25 mph. There may be a few spotty showers across the I-35 corridor region later today.
Wednesday a few more clouds will arrive with lows in the lower to mid-60s and highs in the lower 80s. Storms will be more likely Wednesday morning across far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, well ahead of the developing storm system to the west. Additional storms are likely to develop across western Oklahoma Wednesday evening that may be severe. A few of these storms may enter far northern OK late Wednesday afternoon or evening into Thursday morning.
Thursday storms are possible. Some may be strong to severe. Lows will be in the lower 60s with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. South winds will remain at 15 to 25mph until later Thursday night when winds will shift out of the northeast.
Friday the storms will end early. Lows will be in the mid-50s with highs in the lower to mid-70s along with north winds and decreasing clouds by midday to afternoon.
Saturday morning the lows will be near 51 with highs in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s along with sunshine and north winds.
Sunday the lows will be near 55. The highs will be near 86 along with sunshine and a return to south winds. There will be a slight chance of storms Monday and Tuesday.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog
Have a super great day.