Temperatures are chilly this morning across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas with the number of locations reporting upper 30s near 40. Daytime highs should move back into the upper 60s or lower 70s this afternoon along with southeast winds and 15 to 20 miles per hour. Some sunshine will be possible for the next few hours before increasing clouds will take over the sky later this afternoon and tonight and head of a storm system that may bring a few storms in Oklahoma. However, a much stronger storm system will be approaching the area Friday and Saturday with increasing rain and thunder storm chances including the threats of severe weather and flooding rains.
While we will have a system nearing the area later today and tonight with a chance of showers or storms, I focus most of the attention on the stronger system arriving Friday night into Saturday.
The front that moved across the area Wednesday and stalled across portions of north Texas is now lifting northward. This boundary will eventually be located near the I-40 or possibly the I-44 corridor region by Friday midday through afternoon. As this process is occurring, a major upper-level storm system will be nearing the Southern Plains. South Winds will continue to bring warm and moist air back across the state and into eastern Oklahoma. Friday morning a layer of warm air loft may be present and should keep thunderstorm activity either away from most of our area. But by the late Friday afternoon into the evening hours, the cap will weaken and the storm system will develop thunder across portions of south central and eastern Oklahoma along the above-mentioned front. This front will slowly sink southeast Friday night into Saturday with additional heavy thunderstorms a possibility along and north of the boundary. So while there will be a severe weather threat with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes with the system Friday evening into pre-dawn Saturday, the main threats may transition to more of a heavy rainfall Saturday morning through the afternoon. The National Weather Service will issue a flood watch and a flash flood watch for portions of southern and eastern Oklahoma that will be in effect Friday through Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches will be possible including some locally heavier amounts. The exact location of the heaviest rainfall axis may still change. But at this point it does appear that south central and east central Oklahoma will have the higher opportunity for flooding potential. We do encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings this weekend.
After the system exits Sunday morning, blustery conditions will remain with highs Sunday afternoon in the 50s along with northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph.
Monday looks good but another front will near the state Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!