Heavy rainfall threats will continue this morning through the day across part of central and eastern Oklahoma as a strong storm system ejects across the state. A few strong to severe storms may develop with large hail being the main threats for the northeastern portion of the state in addition to the heavy rainfall. Later this afternoon and evening locations along highway 69 east and I-40 south may experience severe storms with all modes of severe weather possible. This “warm sector” may attempt to expand northward later this afternoon but as of this morning we anticipate the front remaining south of the metro for the day. Temperatures will stay in the 50s for most of the day across northern OK before reaching near 60 later this afternoon for the metro. We’ll keep our winds for the metro from the northeast for this event.
Temperatures across the southeastern part of the state could reach the mid to upper 70s later today with south winds across the far southeastern third of Oklahoma. This system will quickly leave the eastern third of Oklahoma later tonight into early Saturday morning but much colder air will remain for Saturday with morning lows in the 40s and highs only in the mid-50s. Stout northwest winds will remain at 15 to 25 mph with mostly cloudy conditions for most of the day Saturday. Beautiful weather is expected Sunday with morning lows near 40 and highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s. Highs pressure at the surface will center near the area with light north winds and sunshine for most of the day after some early morning clouds. Our next system may not approach the area until Wednesday or by the end of next week.
The front moved across the area on schedule yesterday and is located this morning roughly from Ardmore to McAlester to near Ft Smith. Winds from the surface into the lowest level of the atmosphere will increase early this morning with rain and thunderstorm activity developing behind the boundary and spreading east to northeast. There will be enough “elevated instability” to produce some hail with the stronger storms, and a few of the storms could even produce large hail. No tornadic activity will occur behind the boundary this morning. We think most of these storms may stay slightly west or south of the immediate metro but I can’t rule out the possibility of some hail across northern OK this morning. Our main weather threats for most of the area will be the heavy rainfall that should occur throughout the day. Model data has shifted the main zone of heaviest precipitation slightly southward but this doesn’t change the configuration of the flood watch. Portions of eastern OK could receive from 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with some locally higher amounts.
The timing of the individual waves will be difficult to achieve today. But we should have a wave this morning, another around 10 am or so, with a midday break before the main system ejects across eastern OK by late afternoon. Some locations across southeastern OK could receive lower precipitation this morning before the storms ramp up later this afternoon from 2 pm to 10 pm when the actual front pushes into the area. It’s during this period that surface based thunderstorms may occur with all modes of severe weather a possibility across the warm sector which should remain to the southeast of the metro.
Remain aware of your weather surroundings today.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.